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Skip to content Home » Economia » Il NAIRU ovvero la disoccupazione in assenza di inflazione NAIRU è l’acronimo di “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment ” (tasso di disoccupazione non accelerato dall’inflazione) e si riferisce a un livello di disoccupazione al di sotto del quale l’inflazione aumenta. È stato introdotto per la prima volta come NIRU (tasso di disoccupazione non inflazionistico) da Franco Modigliani e Lucas Papademos nel 1975, come miglioramento rispetto al concetto di “tasso naturale di disoccupazione ” proposto in precedenza da Milton Friedman.
La politica monetaria condotta sotto l’ipotesi di un NAIRU implica la concessione di una sufficiente disoccupazione nell’economia per evitare che l’inflazione salga al di sopra di un dato obiettivo. I prezzi sono autorizzati ad aumentare gradualmente e una certa disoccupazione è tollerata.
Origini Una prima forma di NAIRU si trova nel lavoro di Abba P. Lerner (Lerner 1951, capitolo 14), che la definiva “bassa occupazione” raggiunta attraverso l’espansione della domanda aggregata, in contrasto con la “piena occupazione” che aggiunge politiche di reddito (controllo dei salari e dei prezzi) per espanderla. Il nome NAIRU nasce perché con la disoccupazione effettiva al di sotto di essa, l’inflazione “accelera”, mentre con la disoccupazione sopra di essa, l’inflazione rallenta. Con il tasso attuale uguale al livello del NAIRU, l’inflazione è stabile, né in accelerazione né in decelerazione. Il concetto è nato sulla scia della popolarità della curva di Phillips che riassumeva la correlazione negativa osservata tra il tasso di disoccupazione e il tasso di inflazione (misurato come crescita salariale nominale annuale dei dipendenti) per il numero di paesi industrializzati con economie più o meno miste. Questa correlazione (precedentemente vista per gli Stati Uniti da Irving Fisher) ha convinto alcuni analisti che era impossibile per i governi colpire simultaneamente sia la disoccupazione che la stabilità dei prezzi e che, quindi, era compito del governo cercare un punto sul trade-off tra disoccupazione e inflazione che corrispondeva a un consenso sociale interno.
Abba Lerner Durante gli anni ’70 negli Stati Uniti e in molti altri paesi industrializzati, l’analisi della curva di Phillips divenne meno popolare, perché contemporaneamente aumentarono sia l’inflazione che la disoccupazione (stagflazione).
Peggio ancora, per quanto riguardava molti economisti, la curva di Phillips aveva poca o nessuna base teorica. I critici di questa analisi (come Milton Friedman e Edmund Phelps) sostenevano che la curva di Phillips non poteva essere una caratteristica fondamentale dell’equilibrio economico generale perché mostrava una correlazione tra una variabile economica reale (il tasso di disoccupazione) e una variabile economica nominale (il tasso d’inflazione). La loro contro-analisi sosteneva che la politica macroeconomica del governo (principalmente la politica monetaria) era guidata da un obiettivo di bassa disoccupazione e questo ha causato un cambiamento delle aspettative sull’inflazione, quindi il risultato è stato un indebolimento costante dell’inflazione piuttosto che una riduzione della disoccupazione. La conseguente prescrizione era che la politica economica del governo (o almeno la politica monetaria) non dovrebbe essere influenzata da alcun livello di disoccupazione al di sotto di un livello critico – il “tasso naturale” o il NAIRU.
L’ipotesi del tasso naturale di disoccupazione L’idea alla base dell’ipotesi del tasso naturale avanzata da Friedman era che qualsiasi struttura del mercato del lavoro dovesse comportare una certa quantità di disoccupazione, compresa la disoccupazione frizionale associata alle persone che cambiano lavoro e probabilmente la disoccupazione classica derivante da salari reali mantenuti al di sopra del livello di mercato dalle leggi sul salario minimo, dai sindacati o altre istituzioni interne al mercato del lavoro. Un’inflazione inaspettata potrebbe consentire alla disoccupazione di scendere al di sotto del tasso naturale abbassando temporaneamente i salari reali, ma questo effetto si dissiperebbe una volta corrette le aspettative sull’inflazione (e successivamente le retribuzioni reali). Solo con un’inflazione in continuo aumento si potrebbero mantenere i tassi di disoccupazione al di sotto del tasso naturale.
Critica L’analisi NAIRU è particolarmente problematica se la curva di Phillips mostra un’isteresi, cioè se gli episodi di elevata disoccupazione aumentano il NAIRU. Ciò potrebbe accadere, ad esempio, se i lavoratori disoccupati perdono competenze in modo che i datori di lavoro preferiscano aumentare gli stipendi dei lavoratori esistenti quando la domanda aumenta, piuttosto che assumere i disoccupati.
Altri, come Abba Lerner (1951, 1967) e Hyman Minsky (1965) hanno sostenuto che un simile effetto può essere raggiunto senza i costi umani della disoccupazione attraverso una garanzia di lavoro, dove invece di essere disoccupati, coloro che non trovano lavoro nel settore privato dovrebbe essere impiegati dal governo. Questa teoria e la politica della garanzia di lavoro sostituiscono il NAIRU con il NAIBER.
Relazione con altre teorie economiche La maggior parte degli economisti non vede la teoria del NAIRU come spiegazione di tutta l’inflazione. Invece, è possibile muoversi lungo una curva di breve durata di Phillips (anche se la teoria del NAIRU dice che questa curva si sposta nel lungo periodo) in modo che la disoccupazione possa aumentare o diminuire a causa dei cambiamenti dell’inflazione. È anche possibile un’inflazione esogena da shock di offerta, come nel caso delle “crisi energetiche” degli anni ’70 o della stretta creditizia degli inizi del XXI secolo che non intacca la disoccupazione perché è un’inflazione data dall’aumento dei costi che, successivamente, vengono scaricati sui prezzi.
La teoria del NAIRU era principalmente intesa come argomento contro la gestione della domanda aggregata in modo attivo (domanda keynesiana) e in favore del libero mercato (almeno a livello macroeconomico). Non c’è, per esempio, nessuna base teorica per predire il NAIRU. I monetaristi sostengono invece l’affermazione generalizzata secondo cui l’approccio corretto alla disoccupazione è attraverso misure microeconomiche (per abbassare il NAIRU indipendentemente dal suo livello esatto), piuttosto che un’attività macroeconomica basata su una stima del NAIRU in relazione al livello effettivo di disoccupazione. La politica monetaria, sostengono, dovrebbe invece mirare a stabilizzare il tasso di inflazione.
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